Tag: Predictions

Opening Day 2012

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Today is Baseball’s North American Opening Day — A sure sign that the summer should be here soon enough and that ESPN will no longer commit 80% of their airtime to replays of dunks and half-court shots. (Don’t you sometimes wish that the “world-wide leader in sports” would cover some world-wide sports highlights. I hear European Lawn Diving is in full swing right now.)

Baseball in Japan
It was probably because it was 5am, but I'm pretty sure this is what I saw for MLB's opening series

At the beginning of any sporting event the only thing, really, for one to do, is to predict the outcome of that event. I am not doing anything different, but I shall mix it up by coming up with crazy ways to make these predictions. This year I am going to predict the final standings of MLB based solely on team salary. Using the salary numbers from Baseball Prospectus, I’ve calculated the teams Cost Per Win (CPW) for last year. And based on this years salary (and a 4% inflation due to an overall increase in spending across the league) and that CPW, here is what we have:

American League

AL East Wins Loss
 Tampa Bay Rays 123 39
 Boston Red Sox 89 73
 New York Yankees 89 73
 Toronto Blue Jays 88 74
 Baltimore Orioles 53 109
AL Central
 Detroit Tigers 109 53
 Kansas City Royals 106 56
 Cleveland Indians 81 81
 Chicago White Sox 55 107
 Minnesota Twins 50 112
AL West
 Texas Rangers 116 46
 Los Angeles Angels 85 77
 Seattle Mariners 51 111
 Oakland Athletics 41 121

National League

NL East Wins Loss
 Miami Marlins 115 47
 Philadelphia Phillies 98 64
 Washington Nationals 88 73
 Atlanta Braves 77 85
 New York Mets 45 117
NL Central
 Milwaukee Brewers 101 61
 St. Louis Cardinals 85 77
 Cincinnati Reds 76 86
 Pittsburgh Pirates 67 95
 Chicago Cubs 51 111
 Houston Astros 36 126
NL West
 Arizona Diamondbacks 115 47
 San Francisco Giants 84 78
 San Diego Padres 74 88
 Los Angeles Dodgers 62 99
 Colorado Rockies 61 101

As you can tell by the crazy number of Wins attributed to the Rays, that I do not take into account a variable CPW, where the higher the win total the more it costs for additional wins. But even without that, I wonder how close to this outcome, standings-wise, we will see? Will the Royals be a wildcard team? How many teams will actually have 100+ wins (last year: 1)?

Want to make your own predictions? Go ahead and leave a comment and we can come back here in a few months and see.

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Rolling the Sunday Blogosahedron

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Girls Wearing Bruins UniformThere is so much fun stuff out there that I’m going to try to blogroll every Sunday some of what I have been reading during the week. (Feel free to email me things I should be reading — The internets are a big place and I do need guidance.) This week I have some broken keepers, baseball prognostications, RedSox Pictorials, a Philly Prank [umm… that doesn’t look right… what do you call someone on the Phillies? (other than terrible)], and more.

  • NBC has the options on a sports reality show. Doesn’t that sound cool? And, Hey, The winners could go to the Olympics! But wait, It’s curling. [TheStar.com]
  • Some goalkeepers are falling apart while not goalkeeping: Michael Rensing of Bayern Munich hurt himself tying his shoes, and Dida of Milan hurt himself going from sitting on the bench to the locker room. [The Offside]
  • Jocoby EllsburyI’ve requested entry into the fantasy leagues of the Babes who Love Baseball, because losing to my friends in one league and losing to the people I work with in a second league wasn’t enough. I now want to lose to strange bloggers I don’t even know. [Babes Love Baseball]
  • Last year is was Jimmy Rollins. This year it’s Carlos Beltran. Some people just love to make crazy predictions for the Mets winning the season. [We Should Be GMs] [ESPN] [Babes Love Baseball]
  • Jacoby Ellsbury has a pictorial and article in the new issue of Men’s Vogue. Our little rookie is growing up fast, and I bet the jerseys with his name on them are selling out fast now too. [Center Field]
  • Read More
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RJ’s Predictions

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I have been shirking my Nerds On Sports duties. There are several factors contributing to this: holiday stress, holiday travel, illness, seasonal affective disorder, excessive alcohol consumption, insomnia, hypersomnia, apathy, work stress, and an inability to find a topic that I’m interested in. In a sense, the Super Bowl is actually a poor topic for me with which to break my hiatus, because I actually don’t care that much about the game.

Football for me has always been a sort of background spectator sport. I unabashedly admit to watching just because my friends are watching, and will cheer for whomever they’re cheering for, because it ultimately makes little difference to me. It’s not like with baseball, where I will fortify myself in my living room, snapping at my roommates who want to watch Grey’s Anatomy. Left to my own devices, I will not bother to watch football games.

Instead, I watch football games with my friends, making references to The Last Boyscout at inappropriate times, yelling out advice like punting on third down or attempting field goals from the opponent’s 40, or ogling the players. (For this reason alone I was sad that the Packers and Brett Favre did not make the Super Bowl). It’s a wonder I get invited to any football parties at all.

So with that in mind, here are my predictions for the big game:

  • I will eat too many nachos and drink too much Guinness
  • Tom Brady will ignore the fact that I am trying to woo him through the television screen
  • There will be a few standout commercials, but most will disappoint
  • The Halftime Puppy Bowl will set a new record for levels of adorableness
  • I will be asked to “use my indoor voice”
  • The Patriots will win

This is the 1st installment in today’s PICKSTRAVAGANZA by the Nerds on Sports staff. Check back on the hour from 11 AM to 4 PM for more “insight” from the nerds.

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2007: That Was The Year That Was

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Now that the regular football season is over, it’s time to gaze into the crystal ball of, er, the past and see how my many predictions panned out.

Named after the Michael Jackson song, of courseRavens Draft Day Roundup (May 1 ’07): I predicted good things of Yamon Figurs (lots of punt returns for TDs) and Troy Smith (Heisman winning QB; potential replacement for McNair). Figurs posted 1138 yards on kickoff returns with an average of 24.7 yards per carry. This put him in the top 10 for the year.

Troy Smith didn’t start a lot of games, but he finally showed us something against the Steelers. 16 for 27, 171 yards passing, no interceptions and only 1 fumble. Not that impressive, until you remember that he’s wearing a Ravens uniform, and suddenly he becomes the best quarterback in franchise history. Maybe. We’ll see.

I call this one close enough, only by virtue of the vagueness of my original promises.

The Game in Game Theory: (Aug 28 ’07): I predicted that Michael Strahan would stay retired and that Brady Quinn would have cause to regret holding out. I was, of course, as wrong as wrong can be about Stray: he helped carry his team to the postseason with 57 tackles, including 4 solo hits against the Patriots in Week 17 and a herculean 8 solo hits at Tampa Bay.

This is MUCH better than football!Brady Quinn, on the other hand, started his only game of the season in the ultimately meaningless 20-7 shellacking of the 49ers. And then, only to sub in for Derek Anderson. And then, only to go 3 for 8 and all of 45 yards. Holy hell. Notre Dame’s current quarterback put up better numbers this season.

I call this one a wash, tending toward “ehh …”. I was wrong on Strahan, but I submit history will bear me out on Quinn. Keep watching Cleveland, I, er, guess.

Fantasy Football Woes (Sep 25 ’07): I predicted that my fantasy football team would do terribly. The Baltimore Colts finished 3-10, 14th out of 14. Of course, I stopped updating my roster after about week 9. That may have something to do with it. But I prefer to blame the Champagne of Running Backs and his unapologetic just-above-averageness. I call this one worse than I expected.

Old Man Easterbrook: I predicted that Gregg Easterbrook would keep saying the most bafflingly dumb things. Viz:

In other football news, 9-7 City of Tampa hosts a playoff game, but 11-5 Jacksonville opens on the road, 10-6 Cleveland is eliminated and the 10-6 Giants travel to the 9-7 Bucs. Has there ever been a better case for making the NFL postseason a seeded tournament? No one cares about the AFC versus NFC Super Bowl setup any more: My guess is you don’t even know how that series stands. (Basically, tied; yawn.) The postseason brackets should reward the teams that perform best, and the best Super Bowl pairing — Indianapolis versus New England — should at least be possible when the countdown begins. The NFL could retain conference and division structure for the purpose of organizing regular-season play, then make the playoffs a 12-team seeded tourney. Performance would be rewarded, and pairings would be better. What’s not to like?

Read the New Republic! Braaaagh!“Oh man! The Steelers totally robbed the Ravens in November!”

“You said it, Chip! But with the wild card slot, we’ll meet them again in the postseason, right?”

“You couldn’t be more wrong, Frank! Thanks to the Easterbrook Rule of 2008, we have to face the correspondingly highest seed in our bracket! Looks like we’re going to Dallas!”

“Dallas? I can’t afford a plane ticket to Dallas!”

“Then that’s a hearty Go Screw Yourself from Gregg Easterbrook to you, Frank!”

“Ah ha ha! Good one, Easterbrook!”

I call this one dead on.

Never Tell Me The Odds (Oct 23 ’07): I called the Colts, Ravens, Giants and Steelers games to be the biggest challenges between the Pats and 16-0. As it turns out, the closest scoring games between Week 8 and Week 17 were the Colts, Eagles (?!?!), Ravens and Giants. I call this one close enough.

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Happy Halloween to the Blogosahedron

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FrankenRedSox FanI think having a free taco and giving out free tacos to children only slightly dressed up at my doorstep has ruined my writing energy for the week. So I shall tell you where else you can go for some exciting things. Of course, I will mix in some fun pictures, because Google Image Search is our biggest visitor (by biggest, I mean only – I don’t think anyone gets here without going through Google) and I have to keep them happy.

The Pumpkin House
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Let’s Make Some Predictions

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In Vegas they make predictions all the time. The goal of Vegas predictions (especially with football lines) is to guess the exact difference in score so that everybody loses their money. Or put the odds in that place where people are willing to fork over their dough in hopes of increased cash flow, but not too high as to cause bankruptcy if you have to pay out.

This is where I got all my predictionsThe World Series is full of predictions and betting. I could predict the Rockies sweeping the Sox and with The Greek having that at 25:1, I could put down $100 and walk away with $2500. But since I think that the Sox will win in 6 (agreeing with Vegas, disagreeing with Serpico who thinks the Sox sweep) it would be me putting down $100 and walking away with $0.

I wondered if any of the Nerds on Sports predictions could lead to some good betting lines, so I asked the team to break out their crystal balls and let me know what they saw. As it turns out we have some active crystal balls. Here are the NoS Predictions:

On Field antics:

  • David Ortiz makes a diving catch at first.
  • Kaz Matsui goes 0 for the entire world series (I know, not a stretch).
  • Troy Tolowiski smokes some weed (look at the picture:
    http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/images/players/mugshot/ph_453064.jpg )
    with Manny.
  • Eric Gagne pitches a scoreless seventh inning. In a PawSox uniform. In 2009.
  • Pappelbon wears his goggles while pitching.
  • It will snow during the games… while in Boston. Read More
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Crazy Football Predictions

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As Perich mentioned yesterday, it’s the second happiest time of the year. There are many signs that are pointing to this fact: all the sports blogs are posting about football, everyone in your office is asking about this year’s Fantasy Football league, and Madden 2008 is available for purchase. I’m part of the first one now; I already consider my $50 a lost cause; and I’ve thought about renting the 17th roster update for EA’s largest game — They have this new “weapons” system that sounds a bit intriguing.

But football isn’t actually here just yet, but I will tell you what to expect from this year. (Note: I am no expert and I’ve only done about 2 minutes of research.)

  • You can expect another well known football player to get arrested and fined by the NFL.
  • Michael Vick will spend a year in prison. During that time he will be able to work out more often, increase his strength training, and do some reading. The results of this will be threefold: 1 – there will be a football match against the guards that the prisoners win. 2 – The increase in strength will allow Vick to play as his own offensive line. And finally 3 – the increased reading time will allow Vick to earn his associates degree in both refrigerator maintenance and nursing.
  • Crowd noise will be on a rise throughout the league now that the crowd noise penalty has been stricken from the records.
  • Younger sister of Jets center Nick Mangold will be heavily scouted by colleges around the country until she tells them all football is just a hobby, she wants to be a doctor.
  • The New England Patriots are going to win every game they decide to play this season.
  • The New England Patriots will decide not to play their final game of the regular season.
  • Beckham will cry when he doesn’t make the playoffs Sorry, wrong “football”
  • ADD interruption: Check out this Slip & Slide.
  • LaDainian Tomlinson will rush for approximately one million yards.
  • Due to the Madden Curse, Vince Young will have 3 heart attacks, a broken arm, and catch malaria this season.

That’s all I can think of for now. What do you think is going to happen this year?

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