Author: Perich

What A Value

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When a term like Most Valuable Player gets thrown around, it brings out the economist in me. What does “value” mean? When most people hear “value,” they think: a lot for a little. Stretching your dollar. A great reward for a little price.

Then I remember that the MVP is voted on, not decided by math, and I frown a lot. Thanks for making the term “value” subjective and meaningless, you clods. Whoo-hoo, another popularity contest.

So, always the contrarians, Nerds on Sports would like to present their own Nerds on Sports MVP.

How We Decide

Since the MVP is typically a reward for offensive play – fielders get the Gold Glove – we focused on offensive statistics. Our usual standards, like OBP and SLG, aren’t any good here. They’re not weighted by number of games played.

So our formula for MVP is pretty simple:

2007 Salary divided by Total Bases

This gives us Dollars per Base – how much it cost your team to get you to advance one base. The lower your Dollars per Base, the more valuable you are to your team.

(If you have a more objective standard of value, let me hear it)

2007 NL MVP

Go on, kick the tiresIt was a close race here, but Hanley Ramirez, shortstop for the Florida Marlins, is the most valuable player in the National League. He put up competitive numbers – 0.386 OBP, 0.562 slugging – at bargain basement prices. At a final price of $1119.78 per base, Ramirez was not only the Most Valuable Player in the NL, but in the entire league.

2007 AL MVP

Forty-nine Curtis Grandersons! Just stack them in a closet!Despite all the love this site (and this columnist) has shown A-Rod in the past, Alex Rodriguez is not the most valuable player in the American League. He’s not even in the top 20. Steinbrenner’s paying $60,395.01 for every base A-Rod reaches. For that kind of money, you could get forty-nine Curtis Grandersons (outfielder, Detroit Tigers). Sure, Granderson might have posted slightly less impressive numbers – 0.913 OPS vs the Rod’s 1.067 – but can you pass him up at a beggarly $410,000? I submit that you can’t.

2007 World Series MVP

This is tricky – not dog-in-the-bathtub tricky, but rock-a-rhyme tricky – for several reasons:
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Bowling for Championships

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It’s that time of year, folks – time to bitch about the Bowl Championship Series.

The BCS is a Frankenstein’s-monster of ad hoc rulings, institutional biases, popularity contests that would make cheerleaders wince and statistical oddities. In an era of franchise tags and million-dollar sponsorship deals, college football remains one of the last examples of sport for the sake of sport. Given all the love and attention it attracts, you’d think it’d merit some serious attempt at ranking.

Oklahoma over USC? Whatever you say, Com-Pu-Tor!However, in the nine years since its inception, barely a year has gone by without some form of controversy. The BCS megacomputer picked Florida (8th) over Kansas State (3rd) in 1999, Florida State over Miami in 2000 and Nebraska over Colorado (the team that actually won the Big 12) in 2001. Not strictly the fault of the computer, but also deplorable: Oklahoma getting shoehorned into the Rose Bowl in 2002, the OK/LSU/USC voting fiasco in 2003, the Auburn Tigers being shut out in 2004, the shameful pandering to Notre Dame in 2005, and the tangle between Michigan, Ohio State and USC in 2006.

Then again, what do you expect? Six grossly disparate conferences (the Big East vs. the ACC?) playing seasons of varying lengths with a revenue sharing system that guarantees Notre Dame a slice of the pie no matter how bad they are. Seriously! Does this year’s 1-9 Notre Dame deserve the same share of revenue as 9-1 LSU? Or even as 3-7 Mississippi? Who can pretend this is fair?

Given all this, is it possible to fix the BCS? Or scrap it in lieu of a new and exciting method of determining the true champion of college football? Don’t just sit there, Nerds on Sports fans – you tell us!

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Exodus 7:12

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Somehow the Yankees writing falls to me. Who’d’ve thought?

Big news yesterday – A-Rod opted out of his contract with the Yankees. He gave up $72 million in owed salary, which means the Yankees gave up $21.3 million from the Rangers. George Steinbrenner’s son Hank made clear that no effort would be made to reacquire him.

He’s .714 in guitar autography! Can Jeter put up those numbers?There’s nothing more bizarre to me than the way New York sports fans and media treated Alex Rodriguez. They routinely savaged the best baseball player in a decade for not being a “clutch hitter” or falling flat in the postseason. They mocked or maligned him for only being “in it for the money,” as opposed to all the other mercenaries with hearts of gold that comprise the Yankees roster. First in the American League in home runs, runs and on-base percentage plus slugging? Screw him.

Scott Boras, A-Rod’s high profile agent, made this announcement midway through Game 4 of the World Series. He notified Brian Cashman by way of a voice mail. The timing of the message – during the final game of a World Series sweep by New York’s closest rival – plus the delivery suggest a cool and bitter parting. So be it.

Here’s the thing: if A-Rod’s after money, he ain’t getting it. The only two teams that can supply the salary he’s accustomed to are the Yankees and the Red Sox (who don’t want him). The Giants can’t. The Phillies can’t. The Cubs can’t. So what does the most hated man in baseball – and how does a man as talented as A-Rod get that appellation – want?

The ring, of course. The one ring to rule them all.
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Never Tell Me The Odds

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The Patriots have already delighted American football punditry with their 7-0 record. Could they make it to the playoffs undefeated?

Let’s consider their upcoming opponents:

Week 8: Washington Deadskins: Please. The only reason the Skins are 4-2 and not 3-3 is that the Cardinals couldn’t pull off a last-second field goal, losing to a team that had half their yardage. This isn’t the worst Redskins team of the last ten years, but that’s not saying much. Pats Win: 95%

Week 9: @Baltimore Colts: This will be the crucible. Less than 200 yards in the air is a slow Sunday for Peyton, and Addai should be back up to speed after lightly jogging over the Panthers in Week 8. The Colts have the 3rd best yardage in the league on both offense (399.7 gained) and defense (269.5 allowed). They’re only average against the rush, though, so let’s send healing thoughts towards Laurence Maroney’s groin (… what?). Pats Win: 50%

Week 11: @Heffalump Bills: Because this worked out so well for the Bills last time. It’s a division game so there should be more of a fight involved, but seriously. The gulf between 1st and 2nd in a division (the Bills with a .333 winning percentage; the Pats with a 1.000) has never been greater. Pats Win: 99.9996%

Week 12: Filthadelphia Eagles: There’s a chance that Tom Brady may instinctively recoil from such an ugly city, fearing to smudge his Armani. But I’m not counting on it. Brian Westbrook’s the only real threat here (Donovan McNabb managed to throw for as many yards as the lesser Manning when he faced the Giants, and still lost by 13) and injuries continue to plague him. Pats Win: 90%

Week 13: @Baltimore Ravens: If the Colts are a crucible, the Ravens are the hammer beating the Pats into shape. Baltimore will shut New England’s running game down. And in the air, Ed Reed’s already got 10 picks in 6 weeks of play. That being said, the stingiest defense in the world means little when your offense can’t produce. Both of Baltimore’s starting tight ends, Todd Heap and Daniel Wilcox, are doubtful (thigh and foot injuries, respectively). McNair can’t land a completion, and Boller has no pocket presence to speak of. Pats Win: 70%

Week 14: Pittsburgh Stillers: Last season’s Steelers, maybe. Pats Win: 80%

Week 15: New York Jetropolitans: This could be a real threat. Chad Pennington’s going to be lobbing bombs to Laveranues Coles and Chris Baker all day, while DeWayne Robertson rushes the pocket. Except, of course, all those people will probably be out by Week 15 (they’re Questionable at the moment). There’s not a team so bad that the Jets won’t roll over and allow themselves an undignified moment. They lost to Philly, for the devil’s sake! I can’t imagine a worse team. Pats Win: 99.9996%

Week 16: Miami Fish: … well, except the one. We’ve already seen how this game turned out once; will the cold weather improve the Dolphin’s chances? Pats Win: 99.9996%

Week 17: New York Football Giants: One last hurdle before the postseason. Eli Manning’s not a bad quarterback, provided he’s standing out of frame of his brother – 82.9 passer rating, lots of picks but very few sacks or fumbles. Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer continue to amuse Chris Berman during the highlight reel; they’re each a fire-and-forget first down. The problem: everywhere the Giants are good, the Patriots are better. By leaps and bounds. Pats Win: 85%

Multiplying all these percentages together, I calculate the chances of the Patriots going 16-0 at 20.3%. That’s a one in five chance for the best team in football to duplicate a feat that’s only been achieved once. I like those odds!

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Old Man Easterbrook

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As Joe Morgan is to baseball, so Gregg Easterbook is to football.

Thus:

The Minnesota Vikings boomed a punt to Devin Hester of the Chicago Bears, most dangerous punt returner ever, and he repaid the favor by running the ball back 89 yards for a touchdown. As a result, football pundits everywhere are asking, “Why does anyone punt to Devin Hester instead of kicking the ball out of bounds?” Tuesday Morning Quarterback asks: Why do NFL teams ever punt to any returner, rather than deliberately punt out of bounds?

The stratospheric rise of special teams salaries from 2008-2012 can be traced to one amazing man - Devin Hester.(1) I didn’t see the game, so I’ll pay Mr. Easterbrook the Samaritan compliment of presuming that maybe Ron Franklin and Pete Bercich said something about it. Still, that hardly constitutes “pundits everywhere,” and without further citations I have to just roll my eyes.

(2) Because the (miniscule) chance of a punt being run back for a touchdown is offset by the (pretty good) chance that the kicking team will beat the receiving team to the spot of the ball, thereby waddling around it in what I call “mother hen” mode.

(3) Think about it for half of a second, Easterbrook – if this were a dominant strategy, wouldn’t more coaches do it? Easterbrook cites one time Belichick did it, as proof of the Mastermind’s Genius, and concludes it’s the way to go. That’s some crackerjack research, Easterbrook. Read More

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Achy Breaky Fibula

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Is it just me, or do the catalog of injuries in the NFL seem more brutal this year than usual?

The conquering heroMiami QB Trent Green took a knee to the head after blocking low on the 315-pound Texans tackle Travis Johnson. He’s out for a bit with a “grade three” concussion (did you know concussions come in grades?). On one hand I have little sympathy for anyone, even a QB, who blocks below the knees; on the other hand, taunting a man whose skull you’ve just altered (as Johnson did, netting 15 yards) is particularly classless. Then again, you don’t go to a Dolphins / Texans game looking for heroes, except wunderkind Matt Schaub.

Speaking of Texans quarterbacks, David Carr is going to have to suit up in Carolina. Panthers QB Jake Delhomme is out for the rest of the season following elbow surgery. David Carr, already on pace to become the most sacked man in football, has already begun cringing.

‘Cause this is THRILLER!The running backs are not getting off any easier. Jamal Lewis is getting his foot MRI’ed. Tampa Bay, having already lost their Cadillac (which they’d insured through Allstott, of course), may have driven their loaner car into the lake. Joseph Addai’s bruised chest kept him from starting on Week 5, and Brian Westbrook still doesn’t like his uniform.

Help me out, NerdsOnSports readers. Is this an unusual number of starters to be out by Week 5, or do I just lack perspective?

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Rocky Mountain High

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Let’s talk science.

Going into last night’s game, the San Diego Padres’ bullpen had the best ERA in the league at a rock-steady 3.00. In case anyone forgot that, watching them butt heads against the Rockies last night, note that San Diego gave up just one hit between the time they pulled Jake Peavy (in the 7th) and the time they called in Trevor Hoffman (in the 13th). One hit in six innings.

Ol’ ReliableHoffman, who holds the record for saves, proceeded to give up two doubles, a triple, and then walk the runners into position for Matt Holliday to score the game-winning (and still disputed) run.

Why did Hoffman break down so spectacularly? You can talk about the pressure; you can pin it on an off night. But we wouldn’t be Nerds on Sports if we didn’t at least consider the well-documented “Coors Field Effect.”

Coors Field is located 1 yard shy of a mile above sea level, the highest ballpark – by far – in the Major Leagues. The air thins at that altitude. Will a baseball, which is significantly hollow, tend to travel further in such a park?

Science!Howard L. Penn of the U.S. Naval Academy, in the course of figuring the home-runniness of various ballparks, came across an answer. Using Halley’s rule, a centuries-old formula for determining the amount of powder needed to land a cannonball on a given target, he came up with some interesting figures.

A home run ball hit at Coors Field as an average velocity of 110.82 feet per second, the highest in the league. A baseball hit in Colorado travels 10% farther than it would near sea level.
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Fantasy Football Woes

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Let’s talk for a moment about how terrible my fantasy football team is.

Not Phil RiversFirst, these are some ancient quarterbacks, and I starteth one of three: Elisha Manning (New York Football Giants), Philip Rivers (San Diego Superchargers) or Jeff Garcia (Tampa Bay Bwa-ha-ha, no please, stop laughing). Of these, Eli has consistently been the best, bringing me 12 points this week and a ridiculous 48 in week 1 (the only week I’ve won so far). Of course, the week I bench Phil Rivers, he throws for 300 yards and 3 TDs against the Packers (to lose!), so I clearly don’t know what I’m doing.

My running game: Maurice “The Champagne of Running Backs” Jones-Drew (Jacksonville Jagoffs), Deuce “And a Quarter” McAllister (New Orleans Ain’ts), Ladell Betts (Washington Deadskins) and Musa Smith (Baltimore Ravens). MJD has gone from being the most potent RB on my roster to the least. Musa Smith – a guy who’ll only get the ball when Willis McGahee has both his hands bound to his sides with duct tape and can’t tuck the ball under his chin to run it for an easy 3.8 yards – puts more points on the board than MJD. I have no running game. I couldn’t even ask a running game to the prom. I couldn’t even have my mom call up a running game’s mom, spend five minutes making small talk about the condo board, and then oh so casually drop the hint that, gee, does running game have a date to the spring formal yet, because Perich doesn’t have one either, etc, all of which I overhear to my deepening mortification while I play my Nintendo DS in the living room, paralyzed between the alternatives of entangling my mom in my dating life and going without a date, even if it’s some pimply, awkward, third-string date from UCLA with chronic knee trouble.

Oh God, It HurtsIn light of my epic misfortunes, I started a WR in the RB/WR option slot and it paid off big. Not big enough to overturn my opponent (Brian Westbrook burned his body in a holy fire this week, rushing for 110 yards and 2 TDs before the Eagles’ repulsive uniform corroded his very flesh and returned him to Questionable status), but better than I expected. Derrick Mason (Baltimore Ravens) is Steve McNair’s favorite, Jerricho Cotchery (New York Jetropolitans) alternates between spectacular and sub-par weeks and Mike Furrey (Detroit) is just no good.

Only my defense and my kicker keep me competitive at this point, and anyone who knows fantasy football should laugh out loud and stop reading. For the rest of you: the Vikings D contributed 10% of last week’s points, and Adam Vinateri another 18%. So that’s more than a quarter of my team’s score riding on draft picks #15 and #16. Somebody hang me.

The available RBs are only marginally better (Jesse Chatman from Miami; Justin Griffith out of Oakland; etc). My best hope at this point is for someone to lose all of their QBs in a freak bus accident and be so desperate that they’ll offer up Joseph “Ad-do or” Addai in exchange for Jeff Garcia. I’m not counting on it.

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