Nerds on Sports

Somehow the Yankees writing falls to me. Who’d've thought?

Big news yesterday – A-Rod opted out of his contract with the Yankees. He gave up $72 million in owed salary, which means the Yankees gave up $21.3 million from the Rangers. George Steinbrenner’s son Hank made clear that no effort would be made to reacquire him.

There’s nothing more bizarre to me than the way New York sports fans and media treated Alex Rodriguez. They routinely savaged the best baseball player in a decade for not being a “clutch hitter” or falling flat in the postseason. They mocked or maligned him for only being “in it for the money,” as opposed to all the other mercenaries with hearts of gold that comprise the Yankees roster. First in the American League in home runs, runs and on-base percentage plus slugging? Screw him.

Scott Boras, A-Rod’s high profile agent, made this announcement midway through Game 4 of the World Series. He notified Brian Cashman by way of a voice mail. The timing of the message – during the final game of a World Series sweep by New York’s closest rival – plus the delivery suggest a cool and bitter parting. So be it.

Here’s the thing: if A-Rod’s after money, he ain’t getting it. The only two teams that can supply the salary he’s accustomed to are the Yankees and the Red Sox (who don’t want him). The Giants can’t. The Phillies can’t. The Cubs can’t. So what does the most hated man in baseball – and how does a man as talented as A-Rod get that appellation – want?

The ring, of course. The one ring to rule them all.
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In Vegas they make predictions all the time. The goal of Vegas predictions (especially with football lines) is to guess the exact difference in score so that everybody loses their money. Or put the odds in that place where people are willing to fork over their dough in hopes of increased cash flow, but not too high as to cause bankruptcy if you have to pay out.

The World Series is full of predictions and betting. I could predict the Rockies sweeping the Sox and with The Greek having that at 25:1, I could put down $100 and walk away with $2500. But since I think that the Sox will win in 6 (agreeing with Vegas, disagreeing with Serpico who thinks the Sox sweep) it would be me putting down $100 and walking away with $0.

I wondered if any of the Nerds on Sports predictions could lead to some good betting lines, so I asked the team to break out their crystal balls and let me know what they saw. As it turns out we have some active crystal balls. Here are the NoS Predictions:

On Field antics:

• David Ortiz makes a diving catch at first.
• Kaz Matsui goes 0 for the entire world series (I know, not a stretch).
• Troy Tolowiski smokes some weed (look at the picture:
  http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/images/players/mugshot/ph_453064.jpg )
  with Manny.
• Eric Gagne pitches a scoreless seventh inning. In a PawSox uniform. In 2009.
• Pappelbon wears his goggles while pitching.
• It will snow during the games… while in Boston. Read more »

The Patriots have already delighted American football punditry with their 7-0 record. Could they make it to the playoffs undefeated?

Let’s consider their upcoming opponents:

Week 8: Washington Deadskins: Please. The only reason the Skins are 4-2 and not 3-3 is that the Cardinals couldn’t pull off a last-second field goal, losing to a team that had half their yardage. This isn’t the worst Redskins team of the last ten years, but that’s not saying much. Pats Win: 95%

Week 9: @Baltimore Colts: This will be the crucible. Less than 200 yards in the air is a slow Sunday for Peyton, and Addai should be back up to speed after lightly jogging over the Panthers in Week 8. The Colts have the 3rd best yardage in the league on both offense (399.7 gained) and defense (269.5 allowed). They’re only average against the rush, though, so let’s send healing thoughts towards Laurence Maroney’s groin (… what?). Pats Win: 50%

Week 11: @Heffalump Bills: Because this worked out so well for the Bills last time. It’s a division game so there should be more of a fight involved, but seriously. The gulf between 1st and 2nd in a division (the Bills with a .333 winning percentage; the Pats with a 1.000) has never been greater. Pats Win: 99.9996%

Week 12: Filthadelphia Eagles: There’s a chance that Tom Brady may instinctively recoil from such an ugly city, fearing to smudge his Armani. But I’m not counting on it. Brian Westbrook’s the only real threat here (Donovan McNabb managed to throw for as many yards as the lesser Manning when he faced the Giants, and still lost by 13) and injuries continue to plague him. Pats Win: 90%

Week 13: @Baltimore Ravens: If the Colts are a crucible, the Ravens are the hammer beating the Pats into shape. Baltimore will shut New England’s running game down. And in the air, Ed Reed’s already got 10 picks in 6 weeks of play. That being said, the stingiest defense in the world means little when your offense can’t produce. Both of Baltimore’s starting tight ends, Todd Heap and Daniel Wilcox, are doubtful (thigh and foot injuries, respectively). McNair can’t land a completion, and Boller has no pocket presence to speak of. Pats Win: 70%

Week 14: Pittsburgh Stillers: Last season’s Steelers, maybe. Pats Win: 80%

Week 15: New York Jetropolitans: This could be a real threat. Chad Pennington’s going to be lobbing bombs to Laveranues Coles and Chris Baker all day, while DeWayne Robertson rushes the pocket. Except, of course, all those people will probably be out by Week 15 (they’re Questionable at the moment). There’s not a team so bad that the Jets won’t roll over and allow themselves an undignified moment. They lost to Philly, for the devil’s sake! I can’t imagine a worse team. Pats Win: 99.9996%

Week 16: Miami Fish: … well, except the one. We’ve already seen how this game turned out once; will the cold weather improve the Dolphin’s chances? Pats Win: 99.9996%

Week 17: New York Football Giants: One last hurdle before the postseason. Eli Manning’s not a bad quarterback, provided he’s standing out of frame of his brother – 82.9 passer rating, lots of picks but very few sacks or fumbles. Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer continue to amuse Chris Berman during the highlight reel; they’re each a fire-and-forget first down. The problem: everywhere the Giants are good, the Patriots are better. By leaps and bounds. Pats Win: 85%

Multiplying all these percentages together, I calculate the chances of the Patriots going 16-0 at 20.3%. That’s a one in five chance for the best team in football to duplicate a feat that’s only been achieved once. I like those odds!

I’m a terrible gambler sports prognosticator. As mentioned previously, we do this little fantasy baseball league, and I’m solid middle of the road year-in, year-out. So it should hardly be surprising that my lack of picking prowess translates into other, equally venerable sports betting guessing arenas.

I entered an NCAA pool this year, giving in to that yearly sisyphean impulse. Imagine my dismay when I saw that Georgetown (and the combo of Patrick Ewing Jr. and John Thompson XV/V) and BC would meet in the second round! (If it helps the imagination, the most dismay I could experience was about five bucks’ worth.) What to do? Logically, I couldn’t pick BC over a bigger, more consistent Hoyas team with a fierce basketball pedigree… but if a team were to eliminate our Eagles, clearly I should pick them to win out. Read more »