Nerds on Sports

Here’s some Boston-related sports news:

First, some kind of marathon. The ESPN coverage hints at but doesn’t really spell out how close the final half-mile was between the Russian, Alevtina Biktimirova, and the Final Fantasy VII villain Dire Tune. Tune and Biktimirova covered that last eight blocks in a dead-out sprint. They wove in and out of each other’s paths. People screamed. It was epic.

On the men’s side, the race belonged to four-time winner Cheruiyot from at least Newton on. He led a small knot of about four runners for a good stretch, then just broke away from them a second at a time. After that, nobody could even touch him for the remaining miles. He pumped his fist after crossing the finish line and counted out one-two-three-four, thus proving he’s no stranger to Boston post-victory culture. Bill Belichick’s got his eye on him.

Not all was joy in Mudville, however: the Canadiens trapped, shot and skinned the Bruins last night, knocking them out of the championship contention. Montreal rookie goalie Andrei Kostitsyn had the game of his life, not letting a single one of Boston’s 25 shots on goal get by. Thus another Bruins’ season ends in disappointment, which isn’t really “news” in the traditional sense. Think of a workplace safety board being updated - “X Days Without an Incident”; that’s the kind of story this is.

Finally, undaunted by their stunt’s unexpected success last year, Jordan’s Furniture is once again offering free furniture. This time, though, the Sox can’t just win the World Series - they have to sweep the first four games. They paid for this with an “insurance policy” last year, which I have to imagine is secret code for “gigantic sports book” as I can’t picture Citigroup writing off baseball-related furniture losses.

Can this stunt pay off?

The MLB.REDSOX contract is going for 14.00 on Tradesports. There’s no “REDSOX.SWEEP” contract posted, but let’s assume, for the sake of blogging, that the odds are similar. A contract on Tradesports pays $100 $10 if the conditions it describes come true. So to “insure” one million dollars worth of furniture, Jordan’s Furniture would need to buy 10,000100,000 shares of MLB.REDSOX. If they bought today, that’d cost them $140,000. (Edit: fixed some math)

I don’t know much about inventory and wholesaling, but I say that’s not a bad bet.

(If there’s any interest, I’ll talk more about Tradesports and other “idea futures” in another post)

You think UNC’s got ups? You think UCLA’s got the defense? Just wait until you see the Nerds on Sports March Madness tournament!

T-1000 vs. Batman

What the T-1000 boasted in strength and adaptability, it lost in speed. The Caped Crusader leapt from rooftop to rooftop to avoid his pursuer. Analyzing a sample of liquid metal with his Batcave computer, he figured out the T-1000’s weakness quicker than Linda Hamilton did, and disabled it with a liquid nitrogen spray.

Winner: BATMAN.

Morpheus vs. Captain James T. Kirk

The two captains faced off in a garbage-strewn subway. Morpheus’ kung fu was strong, but Kirk kept luring him into situations where he couldn’t unleash his full power (narrow hallways, subway turnstiles, etc). Kirk lost some headway in the early rounds, however, by mistaking the superhumanly strong Morpheus for a robot. “What is love?” he bellowed, trying to trick his opponent’s programming. “What … is the meaning … of life?”

Battered and bloodied, Kirk finally tricked Morpheus into severing a phone junction box with a vicious roundhouse kick, cutting off his means of escape. He then wrapped Morpheus up in a headlock and threw him into the path of a train. But Morpheus shocked the crowd by backflipping off the opposite wall just before the train arrived and landing on Kirk’s head with a double knee strike. This was one for the record books - the closest match the Tournament has seen so far.

Winner: MORPHEUS.

Wolverine vs. Optimus Prime

This one went into triple overtime with no clear leader. Optimus Prime kept stepping on Wolverine, but the feisty Canuck couldn’t be kept down. Meanwhile, Wolverine had the cutting power but not the muscle mass to take down a robot ten times his height - despite having no problem with Sentinel robots of similar size.

Finally, a stroke of good fortune exposed the Autobot Matrix of Leadership to Wolverine’s claws. Optimus fought the remainder of the third overtime period with one hand protecting his chest cavity, giving Wolverine an advantage. As Optimus fell, the Matrix bounced out of his chest and landed in the hands of Judd Nelson.

Winner: WOLVERINE

Luke Skywalker vs. Legolas

A lot of commentators expected this one to go longer than it did. Legolas had some clear advantages in agility and precision, and a thousand years of experience over his young and headstrong Jedi opponent. However, lightsabers can still deflect arrows, whereas the reverse is never true.

Winner: LUKE SKYWALKER

Final Four

This week brings us to the conference championship games, which will determine who faces off in the finals next week. We’ve seen some upsets and some blowouts, but I think we can all agree that these competitors deserve to be here.

Hyrule Conference Championship: Batman vs. Morpheus

Paragon City Conference Championship: Wolverine vs. Luke Skywalker

Log on to our survey to vote for your favorite. We had several matches in this last round come down to just a few votes. Don’t let your favorite get knocked out because you didn’t vote for him!

Voting ends midnight on Sunday, April 6th. Good luck, and see you in the finals!

The NCAA bracket has excited exactly no one, with top seeds like UNC, Tennessee and Kansas cruising on through. But the Elite Eight at Nerds on Sports continues to surprise!

Blowouts

Given past success in defeating Superman, it shocked no one that Batman wiped the floor with Superman’s low-rent Jersey cousin, Mr. Incredible. A complicated series of super-gadgets and martial arts nerve strikes brought the invulnerable bruiser low, though the two superheroes parted as friends. The Operative looked awfully bad-ass, quoting obscure philosophers and wielding a totally cool katana, until Optimus Prime ran him over. Nine or ten times.

Meanwhile, fans were treated to the longest first half of the tournament so far, as Rick Deckard insisted on putting Luke Skywalker through the tedious process of the Voight-Kampff test. Determining with six minutes left in the game that Skywalker was not, in fact, a robot, Deckard seemed at a loss and quickly fell to Skywalker’s lightsaber. “Don’t get cocky, kid,” he warned after the game.

Squeakers

Legolas and Harry Potter traded the lead several times before Legolas slammed one home before the buzzer. Mark Schlabach at ESPN.com had said that Potter’s “keys to the game” included not brooding for hours over consequential choices, advice the boy wizard apparently failed to take. Morpheus and Buffy Summers had an epic kung-fu duel on rain-swept rooftops that went into quintuple-overtime. The terrorist mastermind finally capitalized on the fact that it wasn’t actually air he was breathing and pulled out a win in the end. Indiana Jones lasted far longer against Wolverine than any of the pundits anticipated, but eventually succumbed.

Upsets

Fan favorite Jack Bauer broke a lot of hearts - and a lot of brackets - over the weekend, losing to the T-1000. Under the mistaken belief that the shapeshifting robot could turn itself into a bomb, Bauer wasted valuable clock time asking where the bomb was and then trying to defuse it. The T-1000 took on the appearance of Chloe, a trusted coworker of agent Bauer, to close in for the final blow.

And all the magical scimitars and panther miniatures in the world couldn’t give Drizz’t Do’urden a win over Captain James T. Kirk. Kirk somehow ended up shirtless and glazed with oil, and he seemed by far the less graceful of the two, but he avoided the dark elf’s whirling blades and beat him with trickery and secular humanist know-how.

The Elite Eight

The final match approaches! Be sure to cast your vote in each of these match-ups!

Hyrule Conference

T-1000 vs. Batman
Morpheus vs. Captain James T. Kirk

Paragon City Conference

Wolverine vs. Optimus Prime
Luke Skywalker vs. Legolas

Voting ends Sunday at Midnight, as usual. Your votes make the difference!

(Remember, you vote by taking this survey, not by leaving comments)

VTech coach Seth Greenberg may be griping about this year’s NCAA men’s basketball bracket - but nobody could complain about the Nerds on Sports Tournament! It’s had its share of triumphs and surprises already, and it’s only a week old!

Blowouts
In the Paragon City Conference, Wolverine absolutely demolished Bowser, controlling the clock from the start of play and refusing to let up until the buzzer sounded. Coach Koopa suggested Bowser’s all-mushroom regimen in the month before the tournament may not have been a good move. Earlier that day, Jedi Knight Luke Skywalker wiped the floor with commando Solid Snake. Colonel Roy Campbell complained to reporters that Snake should have been higher seeded, to avoid such a disastrous first-round washout. He ended his press conference by shouting, “SNAAAAKE” into the microphone. Also, Curt Schilling injured his shoulder in his 32-6 loss to Harry Potter, a first-year rookie out of Hogwarts Academy.

The Hyrule Conference was more closely matched, the only blowout coming when Batman outwitted legendary swordsman Li Mu Bai. The Caped Crusader’s proficiency with dozens of martial styles overwhelmed Li Mu Bai’s mastery of only one. Neither of the two combatants had any words for the press following the game.

Squeakers
The Hyrule Conference, however, went down to the wire on far more showings. The T-1000 nearly suffered a humiliating upset against Inigo Montoya, only winning in the 4th quarter when the quixotic Spaniard began to tire. Paul Atredies and Captain James T. Kirk went blow for blow in a truly memorable game. Captain Kirk’s experience in unseating alien gods proved handy in defeating the God Emperor, however, and Muad’Dib fell in the end. And in a match that we refuse to call the “Ultimate Jack-Off,” Jack Bauer narrowly beat Captain Jack Sparrow. Bauer credited his victory to the fact that his sidearm, a Sig Sauer P220, carries more than one cartridge in its magazine and does not take 30 seconds to reload.

Upsets
Once again we return to the Paragon City conference, and man is your office pool in trouble! Dr. Indiana Jones turned over the Alien Queen, luring her into a complex network of traps that hinged on obscure Aramaic texts. The Alien Queen, not knowing Aramaic, fell to its death. Many pundits expected Warmech to wipe the floor with harried cop Rick Deckard, given Warmech’s titanium armor and nuclear payload. But these experts forgot that Rick Deckard only has one item on his resume for the last fifteen years and that’s murdering robots.

Back in Hyrule: bulletproof plating didn’t help Master Chief either - he got staked in the chest and kicked in the head by Buffy Summers. After blowing the Marine up with one of his own plasma grenades, Buffy said something that was probably meant to be clever but just came off wordy and weird.

Round Two - The Sweet Sixteen

Hyrule Conference

Jack Bauer vs. T-1000

Batman vs. Mr. Incredible

Buffy Summers vs. Morpheus

Captain James T. Kirk vs. Drizz’t Do’urden

Paragon City Conference

Indiana Jones vs. Wolverine

Optimus Prime vs. The Operative

Rick Deckard vs. Luke Skywalker

Legolas vs. Harry Potter

Your Vote Counts!

Voting ends on midnight Sunday, March 23rd. Choose your side and stay tuned for the results!

Nerds on Sports is hosting its own March tournament - to see who’s the winner among all nerd icons. We sent out invitations to thousands of video game characters, comic book heroes and sci-fi action stars. Thirty-two responded and the tournament was formed.

You decide the winner - by voting in our scientific surveys!

Bracket #1: The Hyrule Conference

Bracket #2: The Paragon City Conference

Edit: Don’t forget to vote in both brackets!

The Hyrule Conference

Jack Bauer
Captain Jack Sparrow
Batman
Li Mu Bai
Master Chief
Buffy Summers
Paul Atredies
Captain James T. Kirk
Drizzt Do’urden
Major Kusanagi
Morpheus
Serra Angel
Snake Eyes
Mr. Incredible
The T-1000
Inigo Montoya

The Paragon City Conference

The Alien Queen
Indiana Jones
The Predator
Optimus Prime
Warmech
Rick Deckard
Captain Lysander
Legolas
Curt Schilling
Harry Potter
Solid Snake
Luke Skywalker
The Operative
Gordon Freeman
Wolverine
Bowser

Cast your votes before midnight on Sunday the 16th. We’ll tally the winners, then move on to the next bracket on Tuesday the 18th.

Now that the regular football season is over, it’s time to gaze into the crystal ball of, er, the past and see how my many predictions panned out.

Ravens Draft Day Roundup (May 1 ‘07): I predicted good things of Yamon Figurs (lots of punt returns for TDs) and Troy Smith (Heisman winning QB; potential replacement for McNair). Figurs posted 1138 yards on kickoff returns with an average of 24.7 yards per carry. This put him in the top 10 for the year.

Troy Smith didn’t start a lot of games, but he finally showed us something against the Steelers. 16 for 27, 171 yards passing, no interceptions and only 1 fumble. Not that impressive, until you remember that he’s wearing a Ravens uniform, and suddenly he becomes the best quarterback in franchise history. Maybe. We’ll see.

I call this one close enough, only by virtue of the vagueness of my original promises.

The Game in Game Theory: (Aug 28 ‘07): I predicted that Michael Strahan would stay retired and that Brady Quinn would have cause to regret holding out. I was, of course, as wrong as wrong can be about Stray: he helped carry his team to the postseason with 57 tackles, including 4 solo hits against the Patriots in Week 17 and a herculean 8 solo hits at Tampa Bay.

Brady Quinn, on the other hand, started his only game of the season in the ultimately meaningless 20-7 shellacking of the 49ers. And then, only to sub in for Derek Anderson. And then, only to go 3 for 8 and all of 45 yards. Holy hell. Notre Dame’s current quarterback put up better numbers this season.

I call this one a wash, tending toward “ehh …”. I was wrong on Strahan, but I submit history will bear me out on Quinn. Keep watching Cleveland, I, er, guess.

Fantasy Football Woes (Sep 25 ‘07): I predicted that my fantasy football team would do terribly. The Baltimore Colts finished 3-10, 14th out of 14. Of course, I stopped updating my roster after about week 9. That may have something to do with it. But I prefer to blame the Champagne of Running Backs and his unapologetic just-above-averageness. I call this one worse than I expected.

Old Man Easterbrook: I predicted that Gregg Easterbrook would keep saying the most bafflingly dumb things. Viz:

In other football news, 9-7 City of Tampa hosts a playoff game, but 11-5 Jacksonville opens on the road, 10-6 Cleveland is eliminated and the 10-6 Giants travel to the 9-7 Bucs. Has there ever been a better case for making the NFL postseason a seeded tournament? No one cares about the AFC versus NFC Super Bowl setup any more: My guess is you don’t even know how that series stands. (Basically, tied; yawn.) The postseason brackets should reward the teams that perform best, and the best Super Bowl pairing — Indianapolis versus New England — should at least be possible when the countdown begins. The NFL could retain conference and division structure for the purpose of organizing regular-season play, then make the playoffs a 12-team seeded tourney. Performance would be rewarded, and pairings would be better. What’s not to like?

“Oh man! The Steelers totally robbed the Ravens in November!”

“You said it, Chip! But with the wild card slot, we’ll meet them again in the postseason, right?”

“You couldn’t be more wrong, Frank! Thanks to the Easterbrook Rule of 2008, we have to face the correspondingly highest seed in our bracket! Looks like we’re going to Dallas!”

“Dallas? I can’t afford a plane ticket to Dallas!”

“Then that’s a hearty Go Screw Yourself from Gregg Easterbrook to you, Frank!”

“Ah ha ha! Good one, Easterbrook!”

I call this one dead on.

Never Tell Me The Odds (Oct 23 ‘07): I called the Colts, Ravens, Giants and Steelers games to be the biggest challenges between the Pats and 16-0. As it turns out, the closest scoring games between Week 8 and Week 17 were the Colts, Eagles (?!?!), Ravens and Giants. I call this one close enough.

Somehow the Yankees writing falls to me. Who’d've thought?

Big news yesterday - A-Rod opted out of his contract with the Yankees. He gave up $72 million in owed salary, which means the Yankees gave up $21.3 million from the Rangers. George Steinbrenner’s son Hank made clear that no effort would be made to reacquire him.

There’s nothing more bizarre to me than the way New York sports fans and media treated Alex Rodriguez. They routinely savaged the best baseball player in a decade for not being a “clutch hitter” or falling flat in the postseason. They mocked or maligned him for only being “in it for the money,” as opposed to all the other mercenaries with hearts of gold that comprise the Yankees roster. First in the American League in home runs, runs and on-base percentage plus slugging? Screw him.

Scott Boras, A-Rod’s high profile agent, made this announcement midway through Game 4 of the World Series. He notified Brian Cashman by way of a voice mail. The timing of the message - during the final game of a World Series sweep by New York’s closest rival - plus the delivery suggest a cool and bitter parting. So be it.

Here’s the thing: if A-Rod’s after money, he ain’t getting it. The only two teams that can supply the salary he’s accustomed to are the Yankees and the Red Sox (who don’t want him). The Giants can’t. The Phillies can’t. The Cubs can’t. So what does the most hated man in baseball - and how does a man as talented as A-Rod get that appellation - want?

The ring, of course. The one ring to rule them all.
Read more »

In Vegas they make predictions all the time. The goal of Vegas predictions (especially with football lines) is to guess the exact difference in score so that everybody loses their money. Or put the odds in that place where people are willing to fork over their dough in hopes of increased cash flow, but not too high as to cause bankruptcy if you have to pay out.

The World Series is full of predictions and betting. I could predict the Rockies sweeping the Sox and with The Greek having that at 25:1, I could put down $100 and walk away with $2500. But since I think that the Sox will win in 6 (agreeing with Vegas, disagreeing with Serpico who thinks the Sox sweep) it would be me putting down $100 and walking away with $0.

I wondered if any of the Nerds on Sports predictions could lead to some good betting lines, so I asked the team to break out their crystal balls and let me know what they saw. As it turns out we have some active crystal balls. Here are the NoS Predictions:

On Field antics:

• David Ortiz makes a diving catch at first.
• Kaz Matsui goes 0 for the entire world series (I know, not a stretch).
• Troy Tolowiski smokes some weed (look at the picture:
  http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/images/players/mugshot/ph_453064.jpg )
  with Manny.
• Eric Gagne pitches a scoreless seventh inning. In a PawSox uniform. In 2009.
• Pappelbon wears his goggles while pitching.
• It will snow during the games… while in Boston. Read more »