Comments on: Crunching The Numbers http://www.nerdsonsports.com/2007/06/26/crunching-the-numbers/ Where nerds are talking about sports! Sat, 22 Nov 2008 06:57:07 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: BedelBlitz http://www.nerdsonsports.com/2007/06/26/crunching-the-numbers/#comment-229 BedelBlitz Wed, 27 Jun 2007 20:58:24 +0000 http://www.NerdsOnSports.com/2007/06/26/crunching-the-numbers/#comment-229 This chart makes my head explode. And I love it. This chart makes my head explode.
And I love it.

]]> By: Perich http://www.nerdsonsports.com/2007/06/26/crunching-the-numbers/#comment-217 Perich Tue, 26 Jun 2007 18:29:50 +0000 http://www.NerdsOnSports.com/2007/06/26/crunching-the-numbers/#comment-217 I agree re:firing, Tom. I agree re:firing, Tom.

]]> By: Tom D. http://www.nerdsonsports.com/2007/06/26/crunching-the-numbers/#comment-215 Tom D. Tue, 26 Jun 2007 17:08:52 +0000 http://www.NerdsOnSports.com/2007/06/26/crunching-the-numbers/#comment-215 I can tell you roughly when a sacrifice bunt is a good idea. For example, runner on first, no outs. Assume batter can sacrifice bunt with 100% efficiency, for a payoff of .725 expected runs (runner on 2nd, 1 out). Further assume that the batter if allowed to swing away will either hit a single or make an out, leaving us with either 1st and 2nd with no outs (1.573 expected runs), or a runner on 1st with 1 out (.573 ER) Thus, a it makes sense to let the batter hit if 1.573x + .573(1-x) is greater than .725, or where the batter's OBP is above a staggeringly low .152! Of course my assumptions aren't perfect, but the clear implication is that under normal circumstances, a manager who has anybody other than the pitcher sacrifice bunt in this situation should be fired. I can tell you roughly when a sacrifice bunt is a good idea. For example, runner on first, no outs. Assume batter can sacrifice bunt with 100% efficiency, for a payoff of .725 expected runs (runner on 2nd, 1 out). Further assume that the batter if allowed to swing away will either hit a single or make an out, leaving us with either 1st and 2nd with no outs (1.573 expected runs), or a runner on 1st with 1 out (.573 ER)

Thus, a it makes sense to let the batter hit if 1.573x + .573(1-x) is greater than .725, or where the batter’s OBP is above a staggeringly low .152!

Of course my assumptions aren’t perfect, but the clear implication is that under normal circumstances, a manager who has anybody other than the pitcher sacrifice bunt in this situation should be fired.

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